11 Hours Ago CNBC.com
With their candidate lagging in most of the major polls, Donald Trump‘s supporters are hoping the election holds a surprise akin to June’s Brexit vote.
Goldman Sachs, though, believes the chances of a Nov. 8 surprise in the U.S. are remote.
The two races differ in several key ways, Goldman economist Alec Phillips said, diminishing the possibility of a repeat where polling incorrectly suggested that Britons would vote to stay in the European Union.
“We think the situation is different for two reasons. First, and most importantly, while both situations represented an opportunity for voters to endorse a change in the status quo, voters in the U.K. were asked to decide on an idea whereas in the U.S. they are being asked to decide on a person,” Phillips said in a note to clients Wednesday. “Second, the polls are simply not as close in the current presidential contest as they were ahead of the U.K. referendum.”
On the first point, Phillips obviously is correct. The second, though, isn’t as clear.
True, some polls have showed a yawning gap between the two candidates. The latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll put the Hillary Clinton lead at 11 points, the last ABC tracking poll had the Democrat ahead by 8 and CNN has the advantage at 6 points.
However, the Real Clear Politics average of all major polls gives Clinton just a 4.4-point edge, and the Los Angeles Times‘ tracker even sees Trump with a 1-point lead.
By comparison, the final London Telegraph poll heading into the June 23 vote had the “remain” vote with a comfortable 4-point lead. Betting odds in the U.K. had given “remain” an 88 percent chance of prevailing, against the “leave” victory of 4 points.
In his analysis, Phillips noted that The Economist magazine published an average of polls that showed the referendum tied, with a large percentage of undecided voters. He also said polls showing Trump ahead, like the LA Times and Rasmussen, use methodology different from many of the other mainstream outlets (though he concedes that polls showing Clinton with outsize leads also could be outliers).
Phillips mostly dismisses the importance of third-party voters, whom he said often break toward a major-party candidate as Election Day approaches.
“In theory, if undecided voters broke entirely in favor of Mr. Trump on Election Day, this could change the election outcome,” he wrote. “However, the views of undecided and third-party voters suggest that they are more likely to vote for Sec. Clinton than Mr. Trump, if they vote at all.”
Specifically, he cites a Washington Post poll showing that 46 percent of voters not supporting either Clinton or Trump had a “strongly unfavorable” view of Clinton, against 71 percent for Trump.
Finally, he believes Trump won’t be aided significantly by stronger-than-expected turnout, while early voting trends don’t appear to favor the Republican either.
However, Phillips does not address recent polls showing Trump with a solid chance of winning critical swing states Florida and Ohio, or narrowing gaps in Pennsylvania and North Carolina.
“Overall, while one cannot rule out the possibility of an electoral surprise, most of the theories as to how this might occur are not borne out by the recently available data,” Phillips said. “The declining share of undecided and third-party voters is shrinking, leaving fewer voters left to persuade, and while a shift in turnout could upend the models most pollsters use, there are no signs thus far in early voting that such a shift is occurring and, if anything, recent data suggest a slight Democratic turnout advantage.”
Wall Street is heavily invested in a Clinton victory.
Securities and investment firms have poured nearly $65 million into her campaign coffers, according to the Center for Responsive Politics. Goldman Sachs employees have donated $284,816 to Clinton and just $3,641 to Trump, who has received $716,407 from Wall Street.
Blog of Staś 
Actually Trump is NOT behind in the polls. That’s one of the extraordinary myths of this election. Credible independent pollsters, who pay careful attention to demographics & base their livelihoods on accuracy, are calling this a dead heat. Or they say plainly Trump is running ahead 2 to 3 points. Most importantly he’s running ahead 2 to 3 points in the Battleground States. On the corrupted end of the spectrum, the TV networks have engaged in PUSH POLLING, trying to drive voters towards Hillary Clinton. WIKILEAKS dropped Podesta emails detailing how Hillary’s Campaign was preparing the polling sampling for the TV networks, which all polls would derive from. Podesta gloated how that database of respondents should be overstacked with respondents who are already known to support Hillary. We’ve also learned that Hillary’s Campaign PAID 65 TV JOURNALISTS tens of thousands of dollars EACH to pimp for her campaign.
So yes, there is HUGE manipulation at work here. Will it succeed? To the great disappointment of all, Trump supporters are not backing down. In fact, there’s a HUGE SWELL of ENTHUSIASM for Trump that’s never evident in anything tied to Hillary Clinton. Tens of thousands of people waited in the rain in Florida two days ago before a Trump rally. It’s common to drive past THOUSANDS of people walking a mile or two to get to his rallies.
Americans CRAVE CHANGE!!! We SEE the corruption! We bitterly DESPISE Washington. Hillary represents ALL the bad. And there’s nothing good. The question is will ignorance of policy win out over the educated electorate. Or will corruption succeed in stealing the election from Trump.
We’ll find out on November 8. I promise you though, if Hillary does win, on November 9 the fight to impeach her will begin. And we will nail Hillary for corruption & selling foreign policy in exchange for private donations–and all of her crimes– bribery of the FBI official overseeing her investigation ($600,000). From here on out, Democrats will be known as the Party SATURATED in corruption. Americans who support her will not enjoy a moment of peace until we get rid of her.
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